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Published: Monday 28 October, 2013

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A bout of vertigo appears to have assailed the Sensex as it reached 17,000, making it lose its foothold and slip 5 per cent from that peak. Fears that industrial production in October might have shrunk considerably coupled with disappointment over the suspension of the FDI reform in retail provided ammunition to the bears to jerk the index lower.



Eurozone watching continued as the leaders there went through yet another meeting with the same disappointing outcome. Seventeen members of the eurozone, agreed on a deal to deepen the integration of national budgets. But the fact that UK did not support this move disappointed investors. Again it offered no solution to the current crisis and was more of a preventive deal.



The Reserve Bank of India will take centrestage next week as market participants start prognosticating on the monetary policy meet scheduled for Friday. Key economic data on industrial production to be released next week will also be closely watched.



Cash volumes were nothing to write home about but the derivative volumes picked up in the later part of the week with tumbling stock prices. Open interest in the derivatives is at comfortable level around Rs 1,20,000 crore. Reduction in put call ratio also signals that some short positions were covered in the fall last week.



That both the Sensex and the Nifty were unable to sustain above their 21 and 50day moving averages last week is disappointing. The open gap formed the previous week was also closed implying that the uptrend that began on November 24 lacks strength.



The rate of change indicator in the daily chart, however, continues above the zero line signifying that we can not write off the shortterm uptrend yet. Oscillators in the weekly chart are also moving sideways signifying that last weeks decline has not made any difference to the mediumterm trend that happens to be down anyway.



It was a let down as far as the Sensex performance last week goes. It followed our shortterm script closely, moving to the high of 17,000 and then declining towards 16,000. The two mediumterm counts that we had outlined last week that the index could be either in a terminal corrective that can end this down trend or this could be a temporary pause in the ongoing decline continue to remain in force since the index is still in the range between 15,500 and 18,000. But inability to move above 17,000 has strengthened the hands of bears. If we extrapolate the down move from 17,908, we get the targets of 15,501 and 14,573. The downward risk will increase if the index does not do an about turn in the first half of next week.



Key mediumterm resistance is however in the zone between 17,800 and 18,000. The 200day moving average is positioned here and so is the previous peak at 17,908. 38.2 per cent retracement of the down move from 21,108 is also in the zone online fashion shop making it a formidable barrier.



For the upcoming week, the Sensex will receive support at 16,060. The 16,000 level is also a psychological support for the index. A bounce from here can take it higher to 16,680 or 17,000. The zone between 17,000 and 17,100 will continue to thwart rallies in the shortterm. Target beyond this hurdle is at 17,666.



The outlook will turn murky on a close below 16,000 with the next targets at 15,849 and 15,501.



The mediumterm range between 4,600 and 5,400 however continues to be in force and so does our quandary regarding interpreting this range. Key mediumterm resistance continues between 5,300 and 5,400 since multiple resistances converge in this zone.



For the week ahead, the index will receive support at 4,814. Since 4,800 is also a psychological support, traders can watch out for sudden rebound from this area. The outlook will, however, turn cloudy on a decline below this level with next targets at 4,755 and 4,640.



Resistances for the upcoming week will be at 5,000 and 5,100. The zone between 5,100 and 5,125 will be the critic online fashion shop al shortterm resistance.



Global markets tried to move higher in the first part of the week on hopes of a brilliant outcome to the EU summit scheduled for the weekend. But as the Dday neared, nervousness also rose making the indices give up some of their gains.



The CBOE VIX spiked to 31 on Thursday on ECB President Mario Draghis refusal to commit to aiding the countries in the eurozone. The outcome of the EU summit, however, pleased US investors with the US stocks moving sharply higher on Friday. The VIX too closed the week below the critical 28 level.



The Dow resolutely marched higher and closed 164 points higher. Our shortterm targets remain at 12,284 and 12,753.



Supports for the week ahead would be at 11,850 and 11,600. If the index manages to hold above the first support, it will mean that the online fashion shop index is rearing to dash ahead for the Santa Claus rally. online fashion shop

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